Research

My research uses numerical models. to explore how climate, ice sheets, oceans and the solid Earth interact and co-evolve across timescales — from past climate transitions to long-term future change.

I use the past not only to understand how the Earth system has evolved, but also to investigate its memory, instabilities and resilience, and the consequences of these processes in the future.

HORIZON 1 - Paleoclimate dynamics

HORIZON 2 - Ice sheets from past to present

HORIZON 3 - From past climates to future commitments

Understanding Earth-system evolution and memory

Cenozoic Earth-system evolution, long-term climate memory, and nonlinear interactions between its components.

Understanding instability and resilience

Ice-sheet hysteresis, past instabilities and resilience, and their implications for long-term sea-level change.

Understanding long-term climate commitment

Using past climate transitions to understand climate and sea-level commitments, and the range of future trajectories consistent with Earth-system dynamics.

PUBLICATIONS

Full list of peer reviewed publications: Click here

Siegert, M. et al. (2025). Safeguarding the polar regions from dangerous geoengineering: a critical assessment of proposed concepts and future prospects. Frontiers in Science, 3, 1527393. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsci.2025.1527393

Hanna, E.,et al. (2024), Short-and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, Nature and Earth Environment. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7

Patterson, M. et al. (2022): Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to +2 °C (SWAIS 2C), Sci. Dril., 30, 101–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-30-101-2022.

Bracegirdle, T.J. et al. (2019) Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate. Geosciences, 9, 255. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255

2026 — Arndt, S. et al. Antarctica InSync Science Plan. Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). https://doi.org/10.67382/EACD5221

2026 — Casado, M., Gorodetskaya, I., Sime, L., Werner, M., Amory, C., Aulicino, G., Behrens, E., Bostock, H. C., Buzzard, S., Catany, R., Colleoni, F., et al. Antarctica InSync Scientific Theme 7. Variability, extremes, and tipping in a changing Antarctic climate. Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). https://doi.org/10.67382/LVKG3981

2024 — Colleoni, F., Naish, T., Gasson, E., Jamieson, S., Johnson, J., Klemann, V., Levy, R., Lloyd, A., Nowicki, S., Priestley, R., Silvano, A., Simms, A., Thomas, E., Van de Wal, R. (2024): Instabilities and Thresholds in Antarctica. - Past Global Changes Magazine, 32, 53-53, https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.32.1.53

2024 — Houssais M.N, Macelloni G., Barante C., Colleoni F., et al. “Understand Climate Change in Polar regions” in Eu Polar Net2 – White Paper: “European Polar Research Priorities” https://zenodo.org/records/14407570

2016 — Colleoni F. et al.: Climate dynamics of the polar environments: research strategy, Workshop white paper, Ocean-Ice interactions workshop, Bologna.

2019 — De Boer, B., Colleoni F., Golledge, N. R., DeConto R. M., Paleo ice-sheet modeling to constrain past sea level, Past Global Changes Magazine, vol. 27(1), 20-21.

Climate services

2020 — Colleoni F., Liakka J., Transient simulations of the Eurasian Ice Sheet during the Saalian glacial cycle. SKB Technical Report TR-19-17.

2016 — Quiquet A., Colleoni F., Masina S., Long-term safety of a planned geological repository for spent nuclear fuel in Forsmark, Sweden and Olkiluoto, Finland. Phase 2: impact of ice sheet dynamics, climate forcing and multi-variate sensitivity analysis on maximum ice sheet thickness, Technical Report TR-16-02, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co.

2014 — Colleoni F., Wekerle C. and Masina S., Long-term safety of a planned geological repository for spent nuclear fuel in Forsmark – estimate of maximum ice sheet thicknesses, Technical Report TR-14-21, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co.

Technical reports:

2015 — Colleoni F., GRenoble Ice-Shelf and Land-Ice model: a practical user guide, CMCC Research paper, RP0249.

2014 — Colleoni F., Rosembloom N., CESM 1.0.5 near past initial conditions user guide: prescribing ice sheets, CMCC Research paper, RP0221.

2013 — Colleoni F., CESM near past initial conditions user guide: prescribing ice sheets, CMCC Research paper, RP0168.

Noble, T. L., Paxman, G. J. G., Wilson, D. J., Colleoni, F., Whittaker, J., De Santis, L., Silvano, A., & Gasson, E. G. W. (2025). Geological and paleoclimatic evolution of the Southern Ocean–Antarctic system. In Antarctica and the Earth System (1st ed., pp. 1–24). Routledge.

Michael J. Bentley, Florence Colleoni,
Late Pleistocene of Antarctica,
Editor(s): Scott Elias,
Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science (Third edition),
Elsevier,
2025,
Pages 742-753,
ISBN 9780443299971,
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-99931-1.00200-2.

Marino M., Data Delta - I Dati e le Date dei 7 comuni del delta del Po., Anteferma Edizioni, pp. 154, ISBN-978-88-32050-59-2.

Colleoni et al. (2022), Chapter 12 - Past Antarctic ice sheet dynamics (PAIS) and implications for future sea-level change, Editor(s): Fabio Florindo, Martin Siegert, Laura De Santis, Tim Naish, Antarctic Climate Evolution (Second Edition), Elsevier, 2022, Pages 689-768, ISBN 9780128191095, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-819109-5.00010-4.

Naish et al. (2022), Chapter 8 - Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics during the Late Oligocene and Early Miocene: climatic conundrums revisited, Editor(s): Fabio Florindo, Martin Siegert, Laura De Santis, Tim Naish, Antarctic Climate Evolution (Second Edition), Elsevier, 2022, Pages 363-387, ISBN 9780128191095, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-819109-5.00013-X.

Colleoni & De Santis - Chapter 4 - "Ancient Antarctica", in Matsuoka, K. (2020). Life of the Antarctic Ice: From Deep Inland to the Coast. Norwegian Polar Institute, pp 135, ISBN-13 9878276664379.

Ritz, C., Peyaud, V., Waelbroeck, C., Colleoni, F., (2021). The Cryosphere and Sea Level, in: Ramstein, G., Landais, A., Bouttes, N., Sepulchre, P., Govin, A. (Eds.), Paleoclimatology. Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp. 301–317. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-24982-3_24

Waelbroeck C., Ritz C., Peyaud V. and Colleoni F. (2012), Chapitre 3, in J-C. Duplessy; G. Ramstein, Paléoclimatologie, enquête sur les climats anciens : Tome 2 : Comprendre et modéliser l’intégralité du système climatique, Edition EDP Sciences, Collection “Savoirs Actuels”, 450p., ISBN-10 275980741X

PROJECTS

2024 - 2026 PNRA: Team member

SWAIS2C Italia - PI: Fabio Florindo (INGV). Role: ocean modeler

2022 - 2025 PNRA: Work Package Leader

GRETA - “” - PI: Tommaso Tesi (ISP, CNR). Role: ocean modeler

2022 - 2025 PNRA: Team member

COLLAPS “” -PI: Laura De Santis (OGS, Trieste). Role: Ice sheet modeler, scientific member of the Antarctic campaign

2020 - 2024 PRA: Team member

PAST-HEAT “PermAfroSt Thawing: what Happened to the largest tErrestrial cArbon pool during lasT deglaciation?”- PI: Tommaso Tesi (ISP, CNR). Role: ice sheet modeler

2020 - 2025 PNRA: - Principal Investigator

ANTIPODES - “Onset of Antarctic ice sheet vulnerability to ocean conditions”

2020 - 2021 HPC ISCRA B - ANTCAL - Principal Investigator: High resolution Latin Hypercube

ensemble of Antarctic ice sheet over the last two glacial cycles

2018-2019 HPC ISCRA - Principal Investigator

BENEATH: Impact of bathymetry changes on the expansion of the past and future west Antarctic Ice Sheet.

2014 - 2016 PNRA: Principal Investigator

Influence of Antarctic ice sheet on Southern Hemisphere low-latitude climate

teleconnections across the Plio-Pleistocene transition.

2022 - 2026 ICDP SWAIS 2C Project - “Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to 2°C warming” - Member of the modeling Team; https://www.swais2c.aq/

2018 Oct-Nov SKB climate service - Principal Investigator

Transient simulations of the Eurasian ice sheet during the Saalian glacial

cycle.

2015 - 2018 Bilateral project Italy-USA (MAECI): PI - Laura De Santis (OGS, Italy)

GLAISSS - Global Sea Level Rise & Antarctic Ice Sheet Stability predictions: guessing future by learning from past.

2014 - 2015 SKB-POSIVA climate service - Principal Investigator

Long-term safety of a planned geological repository for spent nuclear fuel in Forsmark – estimate of maximum ice sheet thicknesses - continuation study

2013 - 2014 SKB-CMCC climate service - Principal Investigator

Long-term safety of a planned geological repository for spent nuclear fuel in Forsmark – estimate of maximum ice sheet thicknesses

2008 - 2009 SUCLIM: PI - Martin Jakobsson (Stockholm University, Sweden)

«Stockholm University Climate Research environment - Boundary conditions»

2006 - 2009 ANR IDEGLACE: PI - Masa Kageyama (LSCE IPSL, France)

Impact de Décharges d'Eau douce provenant de la GLace continentale sur le Climat Européen et méditerranéen.

2006 - 2008 PRIN 2006: PI - Giorgio Spada (Università di Urbino)

The role of glacial isostatic adjustment in global and Mediterranean sea-level variations: new geophysical, geological and archaeological constraints.